Friday, January 21, 2011

How to Handle the Coming Gold Correction

How to Handle the Coming Gold Correction

By Brian Hunt, editor in chief, Stansberry & Associates

Friday, January 21, 2011

It's not natural.

As our friend and master investor Chris Weber recently noted, never in the past 200 years has a widely traded stock market or commodity registered 10 consecutive years of higher prices.

But as of December 31, 2010, gold has. Gold's 10 consecutive years of higher prices is an astounding, once-in-eight-generations occurrence.

Here's the thing: That uninterrupted 10-year uptrend is not a natural state for gold. It's not a natural state for any asset.

Knowing this... and knowing that even the biggest, healthiest multiyear bull markets need to take "breathers," it's as natural to expect gold to correct and end the year lower as it is to expect someone who has run flat out for 10 miles to take break.

How deep could gold's "break" go? Below is a 10-year chart of gold. As you can see, gold could correct all the way down to $1,100 an ounce and remain in the confines of its big bull trend.

Most people who own gold would freak out about a 20%-plus drop. That's because most people who own gold view it the wrong way. They think it's an investment... and they'd like to get filthy rich from it. That's not how the seasoned investor views gold.

Gold isn't an investment.

A thousand shares of health-care company Johnson & Johnson is an investment. J&J pays a dividend. It's a stable, profitable business that's going to grow its cash flows and distribute a portion of those cash flows to it shareholders.

An income-producing rental property is an investment. Bought at the right price, a rental property will return all your original capital in the form of rent checks.

Gold isn't like those two examples at all. Gold doesn't pay interest or a dividend. It doesn't have profit margins. You can't price it based on earnings.

Gold is money. It's a real, hold-in-your-hand form of wealth. The hot shots on CNBC dismiss gold's role as money as a bubble or a fad. I have to agree with them... It's just a passing fad that has lasted for 5,000 years. It should only last a few thousand more.

Gold has been used for money for thousands of years because it's easily divisible, it's easily transportable, it has intrinsic value, it's durable, and its form is consistent around the world. And as our friend Doug Casey reminds us, it's a good form of money because governments can't print it up on a whim. You can't Bernanke your way to wealth with gold. You have to work and save to accumulate it.

In sum, could gold suffer a big correction from here? Absolutely. It's had an amazing string of gains. Gold is well within its rights to take a break. That break could easily shave hundreds of dollars off its current price.

But when I look at the U.S. government's absolutely stupid "kick the can down the road" approach to our fiscal problems... when I hear howls from special interest groups after even small government spending cuts are suggested... I begin to see a potential gold decline as a huge opportunity to accumulate more real wealth.

That's why if a natural gold correction occurs in 2011, I'll be buying more.

Good investing,

Brian Hunt

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Ron Paul 2012??

This is interesting news. Could Ron Paul Announce a 2012 run soon?

"Texas lawmaker says he'd rather run for Barack Obama's seat than Kay Bailey Hutchison's."

Monday, January 17, 2011

The George Soros of the right David Rockefeller Confronted

China's Hu Jintao: Currency system is 'product of past'

Hu Jintao is due to visit Washington this week

Chinese President Hu Jintao has said the international currency system dominated by the US dollar is a "product of the past".

Mr Hu also said China was taking steps to replace it with the yuan, its own currency, but acknowledged that would be a "fairly long process".

The remarks to two US newspapers come ahead of a state visit by the Chinese leader to Washington this week.

They reflect continuing tensions over currency issues between the two powers.

The remarks to the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal came in the form of written responses to questions. Mr Hu also reiterated criticism of a decision by the US Federal Reserve to inject $600bn into the economy, which some argue will weaken the dollar at the expense of other countries' exports.

"The monetary policy of the United States has a major impact on global liquidity and capital flows and therefore, the liquidity of the US dollar should be kept at a reasonable and stable level," President Hu said.

'Important contribution'

Meanwhile, he disagreed with suggestions that letting the yuan appreciate in value would help China to combat inflation.

He said inflation, which reached 5.1% in November - its highest level in 28 months - was "on the whole moderate and controllable".

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

Making the renminbi an international currency will be a fairly long process”

End Quote Hu Jintao President of China

"We have the confidence, conditions and ability to stabilise the overall price level," he said.

Beijing has previously come under pressure over its currency from the US, which has accused China of manipulating the yuan to help boost Chinese exports.

On Sunday night, three Democratic senators announced they would introduce a new bill to increase penalties the US considers to be "currency manipulators".

However, the move is unlikely to receive support from senior Republicans - who recently took control of the House of Representatives.

The new House speaker, John Boehner, voted against another bill that failed last year that would have helped US companies challenge currency subsidies.

Currency reservations

Despite criticism of the current system, Mr Hu said he believed it would be a long time before the yuan - or renminbi (RMB) - was accepted as a global currency.

"China has made important contribution to the world economy in terms of total economic output and trade, and the RMB has played a role in the world economic development," he said.

"But making the RMB an international currency will be a fairly long process."

Some economists suggest that China's growth strategy - with its focus on exports and state-led investment - may be incompatible with Mr Hu's currency ambitions.

In order for the yuan to oust the dollar as a global reserve currency, international central banks and investors would need to be able to get their hands on huge amounts of the currency.

Yet neither of the ways in which China could supply the world with more yuan is at all appealing to Beijing, according to Michael Pettis, economist at Beijing University.

He says the country could start running big trade deficits with the rest of the world - just as the US has been doing - and finance them by selling their currency to their trade partners.

Or it could allow foreign investors to pour their money into Chinese financial assets - like shares, bonds or yuan bank accounts - matched by similar Chinese investments in the rest of the world.

But Mr Pettis warns that for the numbers to add up, China would need to do these things on an unprecedented scale, which is likely to be unpalatable to the authorities.

Either of these moves is likely to go with an increase in the yuan's value, making Chinese exporters less competitive.

And they may also fuel speculative asset bubbles in China - something that Beijing has been trying to clamp down on of late.

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Silver: From $30/oz to over $500 by 2020

Silver: From $30/oz to over $500 by 2020

By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report


(And from $500 to $5000 by 2030!)

Silver: From $30/oz. to over $500 by 2020. In under a minute, I can tell you why that price must happen, and likely when. It seems to me that the public will one day wake up and start buying silver to protect from inflation. Thus, long before, say 10-20% of people buy silver, at least 1% of the American public will buy silver. We can calculate what might happen to the silver price when that happens.

The amount of money in US Banks is about $18 trillion. 1% of that is $180 billion.

Very little silver is left; it's mostly all been consumed, so most of what is available to buy is the annual new mine supply which is 700 million ounces.

$180 billion is $180,000 million. Divide that by 700 million, and we get an implied price of $257 per ounce. Do the math yourself. I'll wait.

But that price would mean that there is no newly mined silver left over for any industrial use, and that nobody else outside of the USA could buy any of the world's newly mined silver. Clearly that can't happen; those two groups would continue to buy silver, competing to buy, and driving up the price even more.

Thus, silver is very likely to be about $500/oz., by about the time that 1% of the American public wakes up and starts to buy silver. That will be the very beginning of the bull market in silver, when measured by "popular demand" -- and at that price, silver would still be very unpopular.

Just remember these key facts, and don't let anyone, or even yourself, trick you out of this developing bull market in silver. Don't try to time the peaks, don't wait for dips, just buy and hold real silver, not any kind of paper silver promise.

What kind of annual gains will that be? Let's see, if silver goes from $30 to $500 in ten years, the compound interest rate calculator tells us that will be an average annual gain of 32.49%, which is about the same as what silver has done in the last seven years, from $4.15 to $30, which is a gain of about 32.66% per year, on average.

Oh, by the way, the 1980 high for silver was $50/oz. That was when M3, money in the banks, was about $1.8 trillion. Today, the monetary base has increased about ten times higher. Thus, the true inflation adjusted peak for silver would be $500/oz. That just further confirms this $500 estimate.

But there are many reasons why silver should surpass the former highs.

Key reasons to surpass the former 1980's peak:

1. Silver is more scarce due to 30 more years of industrial consumption.

2. Paper silver scams are more abundant.

3. Baby Boomers will be retiring, cashing out stocks and draining pension plans that have not yet invested into silver, causing other investments to vastly under perform silver, making silver ever more attractive.

4. More trend investors today will notice the silver bull market and continued gains in the silver price, and invest in it, and carry it to further highs.

5. The US government and political leaders are spending like never before, and the people, even the world over, lack the political will to control government spending which will ruin all currencies.

6. There are no "safe" currencies to run to, leaving gold and silver as the only alternatives; and gold and silver have been in bull markets in all major currencies for 10 years now.

I'm sure you can think of many other reasons, but that's enough for now.

So, the true skeptic may ask, "Yes, but this guy is a coin dealer, he's just pushing his product because he has plenty of silver he wants to dump. Besides, what kind of argument will he come up with to sell silver after it hits $500/oz.?"

Let me answer this two part question. Yes, I do have silver! I have it, because I believe that the price will go up a lot, thus, it makes perfect sense for me to carry it as inventory. I sell it, because few people are able to buy it in bulk like we can, so I use my own stash, and industry connections, to enable others to buy it.

But what will I say after silver hits $500/oz., or nears that price?

I'll say, "Obviously this bull market in silver is just getting started. Only 1% of American public money is buying silver per year. Just wait until at least 10% of US money is buying silver in a year, the price will be well over $2500 to $5000 per oz. for silver."

But I would never make that argument now. Too few people would believe me, and they would think I'm some kind of kook. And people never do business with kooks.

And what will I say when silver nears $2000/oz.?

I'll say, "Everyone knows it only costs 4 cents to print up a $100 bill, and everything returns to its intrinsic value. But used paper, particularly smelly paper, is worth even less, which is useful only for things like lining the bottom of the cages of birds, or burning in the fireplace. Thus, the price for silver will soon only be quoted in terms of gold, and certainly not quoted in terms of any kind of paper money at all." But again, I'd never say that today, everyone would think I'm crazy.

Oops. Too late for me. But it's not too late for you to buy some silver!

I strongly advise you to take possession of real gold and silver, at anywhere near today's prices, while you still can. The fundamentals indicate rising prices for decades to come, and a major price spike can happen at any time.


Jason Hommel

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Silver Rush: Investors pile money into silver

LONDON (Commodity Online): Gold has been the hottest commodity that people from India to the United States are piling their money into. Gold’s poor cousin silver is emerging as the most luring investment option for traders and common people these days.

What is driving the silver boom? What is it that fascinates investors to silver that used to be the first currency in China centuries back?
Like gold, silver is topping the investment charts these days. In the US, sales of the silver bullion coins have recorded historic high in 2010. A latest commodity report says that silver is the most attractive investment proposition for the people in Australia. In fact, in Australia, people are buying more silver coins than gold coins.

In the last one year—in fact from 2009 onwards—silver price has more than doubled. Silver has boomed to the current $30 level from the $13 level in 2009.

Why is silver booming? Why are investors piling their money into silver?

In this following lucid write up, precious metals analysts Dr. David Eifrig provides some fascinating inputs on silver:

Surging Silver Investment is changing the nature of this market. A couple of years ago, I shared two shocking silver charts with DailyWealth readers.

These charts showed how governments around the globe have abandoned silver as money. They've decided it's easier to expand a nation's credit with fiat paper money than to mine more silver. They've sold off their silver stockpiles to industry and investors.

This trend is decades in the making. At first, much of this silver was used up in industrial manufacturing and processes like photography. That silver is gone forever.

But starting around 1997, silver began flowing into private hands. Folks concerned with wars, investment bubbles, and mismanaged economies were buying it up. They turned to silver as a safe form of savings that can't be debased by a gang of spend-happy politicians.

It was a modern day "rush" into Silver Investment. And Buying Silver back then was a smart move. The metal is up sixfold over the last 14 years...while stocks and real estate have struggled to do anything...and while paper currencies have depreciated in value.

The thing is, the silver rush is still on.

Demand for silver coins is taking off. It's up almost sevenfold from the mid-1990s. The public is catching on to the value of silver, and I expect this trend to continue for years.

Since my first essay back in 2009, the price of Silver Bullion has soared more than 100% – from $13.50 to about $29 today. But over the long term, there's much more to come.

Here's how I explained it in 2009:

"Governments around the world are behaving absolutely stupidly right now. Our vice president just said with a straight face that the government has to spend more money in order to save the nation from bankruptcy. That's crazy...but it passes for conventional wisdom these days.

"In my 30 years of investing, I've never seen so many risks in the financial system. That kind of 'patriarchal thinking' is producing those risks."

The stupid thinking I saw in 2009 hasn't gone anywhere. Governments across the globe are spending with abandon and creating big risks for savers and investors.

That's why it's a good idea to keep a portion of your assets in "chaos hedges" like gold and silver. You should know, I'm not the kind of guy who lives in a concrete bunker. I don't think the world is about to end. I'm not anyone's idea of a "gold bug". I buy this stuff just like I buy car insurance.

You should think of gold and silver as insurance against calamity. You should think of it as a safe store of wealth. And as I've just shown you, many people are catching onto this line of thinking. I expect millions more will over the next few years.

Keiser Report: Curse on Taxes

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Jim Rogers: I would own silver than gold

Jim Rogers: I would own silver than gold

LONDON (Commodity Online): Which is the best investment asset in commodities? Gold or Silver? It is an ongoing precious metals debate to which leading global commodities investors and bullion analysts are partaking these days.

Among them, the wisdom in investing in commodities comes sharp and clear from Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings. The celebrated commodities investor and founder of the Rogers International Commodity Index says he would love to own silver than gold.

In an interview to India’s business television channel ET Now, Rogers said that by the way of the precious metals investment, “I would rather own silver than gold.”

Asked if he expects soft commodities to outperform precious metals and base metals, Rogers said this: “Well, as a generalization, yes. I would rather own agriculture and so other commodities in 2011, but silver may outperform a lot of things.”

He said that silver is a metal and it is still depressed. “Silver is still 40% below its all-time high. So silver has not been any sort of great bubble compared to perhaps some other assets we know. I, as a class between agriculture, energy and metals, would rather own agriculture and by the way of the precious metals, I would rather own silver than gold.”

Rogers, a veteran commodities investor who has penned such fascinating books like Hot Commodities and A Bull in China, disclosed that he still owns silver.

“I still own my silver. I am not sure if I would buy it today as it has gone up so much so fast, but I am not selling it and if it goes down, I will buy more silver. Likewise for the rice, if rice goes down, I will buy more rice. So both the silver and rice have a great future for the next few years,” Rogers added.

On US bonds and China real estate, Rogers had the following words of wisdom:

“I am selling short United States government bonds, the long bonds. Everybody seems to be optimistic. Even I felt unsure when Mr. Bernanke said he was going to buy them. I thought I was being foolish, but I am making a little bit of money right now. But as I look around the world, that is one of the few bubbles or potential bubbles that I see."

" Well, one should go the other way where there is a market, there may be a bubble in Chinese urban real estate. It is not really many ways for me to play that but the only bubble that I see in public markets is the long-term government bond market in the United States.”
7 Reasons Food Shortages Will Become a Global Crisis

by Nicholas West and Zen Gardner

Activist Post

Food inflation is here and it's here to stay. We can see it getting worse every time we buy groceries. Basic food commodities like wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice have been skyrocketing since July, 2010 to record highs. These sustained price increases are only expected to continue as food production shortfalls really begin to take their toll this year and beyond.

This summer Russia banned exports of wheat to ensure their nation's supply, which sparked complaints of protectionism. The U.S. agriculture community is already talking about rationing corn over ethanol mandates versus supply concerns. We've seen nothing yet in terms of food protectionism.

Global food shortages have forced emergency meetings at the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization where they claim "urgent action" is needed. They point to extreme weather as the main contributing factor to the growing food shortages. However, commodity speculation has also been targeted as one of the culprits.

It seems that the crisis would also present the perfect opportunity and the justification for the large GMO food companies to force their products into skeptical markets like in Europe and Japan, as recently leaked cables suggest. One thing is for sure; food shortages will likely continue to get worse and eventually become a full-scale global food crisis.

Here are seven reasons why food shortages are here to stay on a worldwide scale:

1. Extreme Weather: Extreme weather has been a major problem for global food; from summer droughts and heat waves that devastated Russia’s wheat crop to the ongoing catastrophes from 'biblical flooding' in Australia and Pakistan. And it doesn’t end there. An extreme winter cold snap and snow has struck the whole of Europe and the United States. Staple crops are failing in all of these regions making an already fragile harvest in 2010 even more critical into 2011. Based on the recent past, extreme weather conditions are only likely to continue and perhaps worsen in the coming years.

2. Bee Colony Collapse: The Guardian reported this week on the USDA's study on bee colony decline in the United States: "The abundance of four common species of bumblebee in the US has dropped by 96% in just the past few decades." It is generally understood that bees pollinate around 90% of the world's commercial crops. Obviously, if these numbers are remotely close to accurate, then our natural food supply is in serious trouble. Luckily for us, the GMO giants have seeds that don't require open pollination to bear fruit.

3. Collapsing Dollar: Commodity speculation has resulted in massive food inflation that is already creating crisis levels in poor regions in the world. Food commodity prices have soared to record highs mainly because they trade in the ever-weakening dollar. Traders will point to the circumstances described in this article to justify their gambles, but also that food represents a tangible investment in an era of worthless paper. Because the debt problems in the United States are only getting worse, and nations such as China and Russia are dropping the dollar as their trade vehicle, the dollar will continue to weaken, further driving all commodity prices higher.

Read the rest of the article

January 8, 2011

Copyright © 2011 Activist Post

Friday, January 7, 2011

"Today gold reached an all-time record high of $1400.  Based on many economic factors, analysts are calling for gold to climb well over $1500 in 2011.  This may be your last chance to purchase precious metals at these prices.  If you've been thinking about getting into the precious metals market, I wouldn't hesitate any longer.  I recommend buying your gold and silver:APMEX

Bank of America Revenue Worries Prompt Fees

By Maria Woehr 01/06/11 - 09:29 AM EST

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Bank of America(BAC_) will be testing new fees for checking accounts to circumvent revenue hits resulting from the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

Other banks such as Citigroup(C_) and JPMorgan Chase(JPM_) have also said they may charge fees for checking accounts to generate more revenue as regulations such as the Durbin Amendment limit the fees banks can charge on debit-card transactions.

Approximately $11.8 billion of the current $16.2 billion generated in debit fees will disappear from the system as a result of the Durbin Amendment, according to a report by Oliver Wyman.

BofA Employees were told in an internal memo that the bank will start charging fees of roughly $6 a month for a basic account and $8.95 for enhanced accounts. Premium accounts will be charged $25, according to an article by The Wall Street Journal.

Fees for the premium accounts can be waived if customers maintain balances of $2,000, have credit cards or have a mortgage with the bank, according to The Washington Post Customers with at least $50,000 in deposits and investments will get priority treatment from the bank including higher interest rates on their savings.

Testing of fees on the accounts will begin in Arizona, Georgia and Massachusetts this month. The fees are likely to be rolled out to all branches by the end of this year

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

"Today gold reached an all-time record high of $1400.  Based on many economic factors, analysts are calling for gold to climb well over $1500 in 2011.  This may be your last chance to purchase precious metals at these prices.  If you've been thinking about getting into the precious metals market, I wouldn't hesitate any longer.  I recommend buying your gold and silver: APMEX

Fake Tea Party At Work

The Fake Tea Party

All the so called tea party candidates will be going to work soon at the deranged capital building in Washington DC. How true are these tea party candidates that they will do as they say during the primary and the general election? How does tea party favorite Marco Rubio fly off to Israel right after the election, so much for being an American Firstar. How come these tea party candidates are aligning themselves with the extreme Christian right? These extreme rightwing Christian conservatives are much more open to fascism. Mike lee of Utah the favorite of the tea party in that Mormon heavy state is a political insider who does not want to end the occupation in Iraq. At least Rand Paul is the only one discussing the need to slash the military.


Reagan Insider Bush Screwed U.S. Economy

Reagan insider: 'GOP destroyed U.S. economy'

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- "How my G.O.P. destroyed the U.S. economy." Yes, that is exactly what David Stockman, President Ronald Reagan's director of the Office of Management and Budget, wrote in a recent New York Times op-ed piece, "Four Deformations of the Apocalypse."

Get it? Not "destroying." The GOP has already "destroyed" the U.S. economy, setting up an "American Apocalypse."

Jobs recovery could take years

In the wake of Friday's disappointing jobs report, Neal Lipschutz and Phil Izzo discuss new predictions that it could be many years before the nation's unemployment rate reaches pre-recession levels.

Yes, Stockman is equally damning of the Democrats' Keynesian policies. But what this indictment by a party insider -- someone so close to the development of the Reaganomics ideology -- says about America, helps all of us better understand how America's toxic partisan-politics "holy war" is destroying not just the economy and capitalism, but the America dream. And unless this war stops soon, both parties will succeed in their collective death wish.

But why focus on Stockman's message? It's already lost in the 24/7 news cycle. Why? We need some introspection. Ask yourself: How did the great nation of America lose its moral compass and drift so far off course, to where our very survival is threatened?

We've arrived at a historic turning point as a nation that no longer needs outside enemies to destroy us, we are committing suicide. Democracy. Capitalism. The American dream. All dying. Why? Because of the economic decisions of the GOP the past 40 years, says this leading Reagan Republican.

Please listen with an open mind, no matter your party affiliation: This makes for a powerful history lesson, because it exposes how both parties are responsible for destroying the U.S. economy. Listen closely:

Reagan Republican: the GOP should file for bankruptcy

Stockman rushes into the ring swinging like a boxer: "If there were such a thing as Chapter 11 for politicians, the Republican push to extend the unaffordable Bush tax cuts would amount to a bankruptcy filing. The nation's public debt ... will soon reach $18 trillion." It screams "out for austerity and sacrifice." But instead, the GOP insists "that the nation's wealthiest taxpayers be spared even a three-percentage-point rate increase."

In the past 40 years Republican ideology has gone from solid principles to hype and slogans. Stockman says: "Republicans used to believe that prosperity depended upon the regular balancing of accounts -- in government, in international trade, on the ledgers of central banks and in the financial affairs of private households and businesses too."

No more. Today there's a "new catechism" that's "little more than money printing and deficit finance, vulgar Keynesianism robed in the ideological vestments of the prosperous classes" making a mockery of GOP ideals. Worse, it has resulted in "serial financial bubbles and Wall Street depredations that have crippled our economy." Yes, GOP ideals backfired, crippling our economy.

Stockman's indictment warns that the Republican party's "new policy doctrines have caused four great deformations of the national economy, and modern Republicans have turned a blind eye to each one:"

Stage 1. Nixon irresponsible, dumps gold, U.S starts spending binge

Richard Nixon's gold policies get Stockman's first assault, for defaulting "on American obligations under the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement to balance our accounts with the world." So for the past 40 years, America's been living "beyond our means as a nation" on "borrowed prosperity on an epic scale ... an outcome that Milton Friedman said could never happen when, in 1971, he persuaded President Nixon to unleash on the world paper dollars no longer redeemable in gold or other fixed monetary reserves."

Remember Friedman: "Just let the free market set currency exchange rates, he said, and trade deficits will self-correct." Friedman was wrong by trillions. And unfortunately "once relieved of the discipline of defending a fixed value for their currencies, politicians the world over were free to cheapen their money and disregard their neighbors."

And without discipline America was also encouraging "global monetary chaos as foreign central banks run their own printing presses at ever faster speeds to sop up the tidal wave of dollars coming from the Federal Reserve." Yes, the road to the coming apocalypse began with a Republican president listening to a misguided Nobel economist's advice.

Stage 2. Crushing debts from domestic excesses, war mongering

Stockman says "the second unhappy change in the American economy has been the extraordinary growth of our public debt. In 1970 it was just 40% of gross domestic product, or about $425 billion. When it reaches $18 trillion, it will be 40 times greater than in 1970." Who's to blame? Not big-spending Dems, says Stockman, but "from the Republican Party's embrace, about three decades ago, of the insidious doctrine that deficits don't matter if they result from tax cuts."

Back "in 1981, traditional Republicans supported tax cuts," but Stockman makes clear, they had to be "matched by spending cuts, to offset the way inflation was pushing many taxpayers into higher brackets and to spur investment. The Reagan administration's hastily prepared fiscal blueprint, however, was no match for the primordial forces -- the welfare state and the warfare state -- that drive the federal spending machine."

OK, stop a minute. As you absorb Stockman's indictment of how his Republican party has "destroyed the U.S. economy," you're probably asking yourself why anyone should believe a traitor to the Reagan legacy. I believe party affiliation is irrelevant here. This is a crucial subject that must be explored because it further exposes a dangerous historical trend where politics is so partisan it's having huge negative consequences.

Yes, the GOP does have a welfare-warfare state: Stockman says "the neocons were pushing the military budget skyward. And the Republicans on Capitol Hill who were supposed to cut spending, exempted from the knife most of the domestic budget -- entitlements, farm subsidies, education, water projects. But in the end it was a new cadre of ideological tax-cutters who killed the Republicans' fiscal religion."

When Fed chief Paul Volcker "crushed inflation" in the '80s we got a "solid economic rebound." But then "the new tax-cutters not only claimed victory for their supply-side strategy but hooked Republicans for good on the delusion that the economy will outgrow the deficit if plied with enough tax cuts." By 2009, they "reduced federal revenues to 15% of gross domestic product," lowest since the 1940s. Still today they're irrationally demanding an extension of those "unaffordable Bush tax cuts [that] would amount to a bankruptcy filing."

Recently Bush made matters far worse by "rarely vetoing a budget bill and engaging in two unfinanced foreign military adventures." Bush also gave in "on domestic spending cuts, signing into law $420 billion in nondefense appropriations, a 65% percent gain from the $260 billion he had inherited eight years earlier. Republicans thus joined the Democrats in a shameless embrace of a free-lunch fiscal policy." Takes two to tango.

Stage 3. Wall Street's deadly 'vast, unproductive expansion'

Stockman continues pounding away: "The third ominous change in the American economy has been the vast, unproductive expansion of our financial sector." He warns that "Republicans have been oblivious to the grave danger of flooding financial markets with freely printed money and, at the same time, removing traditional restrictions on leverage and speculation." Wrong, not oblivious. Self-interested Republican loyalists like Paulson, Bernanke and Geithner knew exactly what they were doing.

They wanted the economy, markets and the government to be under the absolute control of Wall Street's too-greedy-to-fail banks. They conned Congress and the Fed into bailing out an estimated $23.7 trillion debt. Worse, they have since destroyed meaningful financial reforms. So Wall Street is now back to business as usual blowing another bigger bubble/bust cycle that will culminate in the coming "American Apocalypse."

Stockman refers to Wall Street's surviving banks as "wards of the state." Wrong, the opposite is true. Wall Street now controls Washington, and its "unproductive" trading is "extracting billions from the economy with a lot of pointless speculation in stocks, bonds, commodities and derivatives." Wall Street banks like Goldman were virtually bankrupt, would have never survived without government-guaranteed deposits and "virtually free money from the Fed's discount window to cover their bad bets."

Stage 4. New American Revolution class-warfare coming soon

Finally, thanks to Republican policies that let us "live beyond our means for decades by borrowing heavily from abroad, we have steadily sent jobs and production offshore," while at home "high-value jobs in goods production ... trade, transportation, information technology and the professions shrunk by 12% to 68 million from 77 million."

As the apocalypse draws near, Stockman sees a class-rebellion, a new revolution, a war against greed and the wealthy. Soon. The trigger will be the growing gap between economic classes: No wonder "that during the last bubble (from 2002 to 2006) the top 1% of Americans -- paid mainly from the Wall Street casino -- received two-thirds of the gain in national income, while the bottom 90% -- mainly dependent on Main Street's shrinking economy -- got only 12%. This growing wealth gap is not the market's fault. It's the decaying fruit of bad economic policy."

Get it? The decaying fruit of the GOP's bad economic policies is destroying our economy.

Warning: this black swan won't be pretty, will shock, soon

His bottom line: "The day of national reckoning has arrived. We will not have a conventional business recovery now, but rather a long hangover of debt liquidation and downsizing ... it's a pity that the modern Republican party offers the American people an irrelevant platform of recycled Keynesianism when the old approach -- balanced budgets, sound money and financial discipline -- is needed more than ever."

Wrong: There are far bigger things to "pity."

First, that most Americans, 300 million, are helpless, will do nothing, sit in the bleachers passively watching this deadly partisan game like it's just another TV reality show.

Second, that, unfortunately, politicians are so deep-in-the-pockets of the Wall Street conspiracy that controls Washington they are helpless and blind.

And third, there's a depressing sense that Stockman will be dismissed as a traitor, his message lost in the 24/7 news cycle ... until the final apocalyptic event, an unpredictable black swan triggers another, bigger global meltdown, followed by a long Great Depression II and a historic class war.

So be prepared, it will hit soon, when you least expect.

Monday, January 3, 2011

Another reason to vote Ron Paul 2012

Most of them - Pawlenty, Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich...all support federal government meddling in carbon emissions.

Warren Buffett ignorant that gold is money

By Jim Sinclair

His father, Congressman Howard Buffett, understood gold, but his son, Warren Buffett, does not understand gold.

Maybe this will help Warren. Why is gold the ultimate and timeless money?

Good money must have a number of unique characteristics.

(1) It must be durable, which is why we don’t use wheat or corn.

(2) It must be divisible, which is why we don’t use a Picasso painting or jade statues.

(3) It must be convenient, which is why we don’t use lead or copper or real estate.

(4) It must have value in itself, which is why we don’t use paper.

(5) It must be transportable, which means that large values must be contained in a small area (a gold coin weighing only one ounce can be worth far more than fifteen hundred dollars).

(6) It must have a long history of being accepted as a store of value. Gold was considered valuable as long as 5,000 years ago in the age of the Egyptians.

(7) It cannot "disappear" or be used up in manufacturing as is copper and even silver. Thus, the gold coin that you have in your hand may have been part of Cleopatra’s earrings centuries ago. Almost all the gold that has ever been discovered is still available in one form or another.

(8) It must not be the liability of any sovereign nation, nor should it require governmental law to make it money. For instance Gold requires capital, talent, risk, sweat and courage to recover or to accumulate.

Russell note — It’s possible that gem-quality diamonds can fit all the above characteristics but two. Diamonds are not divisible, nor do they have a long history of being stores of value.

Second note — The Washington-based IMF recently completed its promised sale of gold. It was rumored that the IMF would have to sell its gold on the open market. Not so. The fact is that central banks eagerly gobbled up the IMF’s gold. According to The Financial Times, the IMF sold its gold directly to the central banks of India — 300 tonnes, Sri Lanka — 10 tonnes, Bangladesh — another 10 tonnes, and Mauritius — two tonnes.

And why are these central banks trading paper for gold? After all, it’s the central banks that are creating the fiat paper. Why are they swapping their own beloved products for gold?

The latest anti-gold propaganda centers around the gold exchange traded funds. A full page article in Sunday’s New York Times implied that only with the advent of all the gold ETFs has gold boomed. The article implies that the ETFs (mainly GLD) allowed an ignorant public to buy gold, and that this is the reason for gold’s recent advances. The article did not explain why gold has risen yearly for almost a decade, even before gold ETFs were created. The Times article hinted that gold was in a bubble, and that it was a dangerous bubble. The article emphasized the 20-year gold bear market of 1980 to 1999.

For the first time, more gold is being taken for investment than is used in jewelry. Asians have been gold buyers for years, while Americans have accumulated dollars and are just beginning to learn about gold. Meanwhile, the ignorant media continues to publish "beware" articles about gold. Soros announces that gold is the "biggest bubble" in the area of commodities, but the Soros largest holding is in gold. Sound as though Soros wants to knock the price of gold down so he can buy more on the cheap.

These billionaire investors; they have no consciences. Hmm. maybe that’s why they’re billionaires.